How the computers see the 2022 NCAA baseball regional pairings
Chris Lee • 5/30/2022 in Baseball
Here's how the computer rankings rank the teams in each NCAA baseball regional.
Tennessee, which won the SEC regular-season and tournament, is the consensus No. 1 team in the country according to the computers. Photo courtesy of Tennessee athletics.
Here is a look at how six non-RPI computers--Warren Nolan's ELO, BoydsWorld's ISIRs, Kenneth Massey, Sonny Moore, Paul Kislanko and Round Table--size up the 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. Numbers are updated through all games except Round Table, which is updated through Saturday.
Teams are grouped by regionals (and the regional each is paired with) as they're discussed below.
Knoxville regional (host: Tennessee)
1) Tennessee (average rank: 1), 2) Georgia Tech (26), 3) Campbell (54), Alabama St. (188)
Statesboro regional (Georgia Southern)
1) Georgia Southern (30), 2) Notre Dame (10), 3) Texas Tech (37), 4) UNC-Greensboro (92)
Analysis: Top-seeded Tennessee got a decent draw in its own backyard; Georgia Tech could present a challenge in thatit scored as many runs per game (9.3) as did the Vols. The Vols have already swept Georgia Southern, but a rematch may not be imminent due to the presence of Notre Dame in Statesboro; the Fighting Irish were expected by many to host, but were instead sent on the road. Notre Dame ranks as the ninth-best team in the country according to our composite.
Austin regional (Texas)
1) Texas (7), 2) Louisiana Tech (34), 3) Dallas Baptist (49), 4) Air Force (94)
Greenville regional (East Carolina)
1) East Carolina (30), 2) Virginia (15), 3) Coastal Carolina (35), 4) Coppin St. (286)
Analysis: Preseason No. 1 Texas was the fifth-rated team by the computers; our composite saw two teams that didn't even make the field of 64 (Clemson, with an average rank of 32, and North Carolina State (34)--as equal or tougher foes than any team the Longhorns drew. East Carolina got a national seed, but the computers saw them as the country's 27th-best team as Virginia seems to be the best squad in Greenville.
College Station regional (Texas A&M)
1) Texas A&M (14), 2) TCU (34), 3) Louisiana (50), 4) Oral Roberts (69)
Louisville regional (Louisville)
1) Louisville (18), 2) Oregon (26), 3) Michigan (74), 4) Southeast Missouri St. (89)
Analysis: TCU was considered a hosting candidate due to winning the Big 12, but its 36 RPI was prohibitive; our composite also saw the Horned Frogs unworthy of staying at home. Instead, they'll play at Texas A&M and face former coach Jim Schlossnagle, whose Aggies drew a middle-of-the-road three in Louisiana and Oral Roberts, a squad the computers had rated as a low three-seed. Michigan got hot and won the Big Ten tournament (and consequently knocked out Rutgers from a potential at-large bid) but even with the late surge, the computer composite has the Wolverines as the 51st-best team in the field, which is four-seed territory.
Gainesville regional (Florida)
1) Florida (9), 2) Oklahoma (24), 3) Liberty (43), 4) Central Michigan (73)
Blacksburg regional (Virginia Tech)
1) Virginia Tech (4), 2) Gonzaga (30), 3) Columbia (87), 4) Wright St. (131)
Analysis: Florida got hot late and seized a hosting spot out of nowhere; the computers have the Gators as the eighth-best team in the field. Florida got a decent draw but watch out for Oklahoma, which also soared up the computer rankings late after winning the Big 12 tournament. The Gators drew a tough four in Central Michigan, which the computers consider a three. Virginia Tech got a relatively easy draw; the computers have the Hokies as the third-best team in the entire field.
Palo Alto regional (Stanford)
1) Stanford (4), 2) Texas St. (22), 3) UCSB (19), 4) Binghamton (221)
College Park regional (Maryland)
1) Maryland (34), 2) Wake Forest (7), 3) Connecticut (40), LIU (181)
Analysis: Stanford--which our composite has as the second-best team in the tournament--got a brutal draw with two teams worthy of being solid twos; the committee somewhat balanced that out with Binghamton, the second-worst team in the field. The Cardinal are paired with Maryland's regional--the computers have the Terps as the weakest host in the field--but Maryland draws Wake Forest as its two. Wake finished with the sixth-highest scoring margin in the country (plus-4.0), just 0.1 behind Connecticut, which played a much-easier schedule.
Chapel Hill regional (North Carolina)
1) North Carolina (9), 2) Georgia (32), 3) VCU (72), 4) Hofstra (160)
Stillwater regional (Oklahoma St.)
1) Oklahoma St. (13), 2) Arkansas (21), 3) Grand Canyon (51), 4) Missouri St. (83)
Analysis: North Carolina got one of the easier draws in the field, with a weak two and three and a middle-of-the-road four. Oklahoma State got a tough draw with its two in Arkansas. Grand Canyon debatably shouldn't have been in the field but the Cowboys may never see them, though OSU will face Missouri State, another four that nearly could have been a three.
Coral Gables regional (Miami)
1) Miami (14), 2) Arizona (41), 3) Ole Miss (22), 4) Canisius (190)
Hattiesburg regional (Southern Miss)
1) Southern Miss (20), 2) LSU (13), 3) Kennesaw St. (68), 4) Army West Point (153)
Analysis: Ole Miss was a controversial pick for the field of 64, but the computers have the Rebels as a bit of a sleeper; they'll draw a rematch from last year's super regional with Arizona. LSU looks like the best team in Hattiesburg; the computers have the Tigers as the 10th-best team in the field, with Southern Miss as the 20th.
Auburn regional (Auburn)
1) Auburn (22), 2) UCLA (29), 3) Florida St. (30), 4) Southeastern Louisiana (117)
Corvallis regional (Oregon St.)
1) Oregon St. (4), 2) Vanderbilt (16), 3) San Diego (35), 4) New Mexico St. (185)
Analysis: The Auburn regional should be fascinating; the computers suggest the top three teams are evenly matched and Southeastern Louisiana is a middle-of-the-road four. The computers suggest Vanderbilt was the 15th-best team in the field, however, that rating is propped up by the season-long body of the Commodores' work before the wheels fell off for Vanderbilt in the season's final two weeks. Oregon State hardly comes in hot itself, having lost six of its last 10, though by nowhere near the margin of Vandy's losses.
Best draws for hosts: 1) North Carolina, 2) Texas, 3) Virginia Tech
Worst draws for hosts: 1) Georgia Southern, 2) Maryland, 3) Oklahoma State
Most overall competitive regional: 1) Auburn, 2) Gainesville, 3) Stanford
Best teams that missed the field, according to the computers: Clemson (average rank 32), North Carolina State (34), Rutgers (38), Old Dominion (40), Kentucky (44), Alabama (47), Wofford (51), Iowa (57)